Couldn't resist

I could not resist shorting energy shares. After buying and then quickly selling HEU at about $18.00 only about 2 months ago, I was forced to watch it march to almost $30 today. I have been patiently watching oil prices and waiting for the right time to enter on the short side. I think that time is now. Sentiment has changed dramatically over the past couple of months. When oil was at $90, no one thought it would sustainably break $100. Now the media is full of reports about oil going to $150 or even $200, and there is less talk about speculation -- it's all about the long-term fundamentals. I believe in the long-term fundamentals. Oil may go to $150 or $200.....but not right now. Not with the global economy slowing. Not with the US consumer suffering with higher food and gas prices.

Of course, I am taking a gamble here. I am going against an established trend, which is generally not a good idea from a trading perspective. And prices can sometimes go vertical at the top. The problem is that when commodities turn, they can sometimes do so very quickly, especially when one side of a trade has become very popular. I am not a very fast trader, so sometimes I must be a bit early. I have taken a small position, and entered tight stops.

I funded the trade by selling one unit of HGU (gold). Gold has had a nice run over the last month, but I fear it too is getting near its top. A return to $1,000 is looking unlikely (in the short-run). I will probably look to exit my other gold position over the next 1-2 months, depending on price action.

MARKET POSITION: SHORT EQUITIES (10 units); SHORT REAL ESTATE (3 units); LONG GOLD (1 unit); SHORT ENERGY (1 unit)