The end of the beginning?

Was today the end of the beginning of the bear market? Only time will tell for certain, but there were a few prominent signs. After Asian stocks fell hard for two days running, the international media were screaming about a stock market crash when NY opened today. After the Fed cut rates 75 bps in a surprise inter-meeting move, the market only opened down about 4%, then rallied through the day to close down 1%. This is the first market move greater than 3% in some time. In response, VIX hit 35 this morning (see last Friday's post re: VIX).

These facts led me to close out 5 units of my short position near today's close. I waited through most of the day to see if the market might collapse (as it has done several times recently) but it held up OK. This was a sign the market might finally be finding some support, though it also meant that my price was not great. In particular, I gave up all of yesterday's gain in HXD. Well, one should try to be as dispassionate as possible.

I am thinking there may be a short rally from here as the market finally clears its oversold position. Could last anything from a few days to a few weeks. I plan to re-establish the shorts, hopefully at better prices. I am hoping that I am not attempting to time the market too closely here....

MARKET POSITION: EQUITIES - SHORT (6 units); GOLD - LONG (1 unit)