Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Volatility often presages market declines

The type of volatility the equity markets have been experiencing the past few days -- up 1% one minute, down 0.5% 30 mins later, is often a precursor to large market declines. The market is fighting an internal battle as it debates whether the economic outlook is really as bad as it looks. Of course there is no guarantee which direction will win out, but my bets are clear. I am not going to increase my position at current levels, but I probably would if SPX goes above 1460 again in the next week or two. Otherwise, I will wait for the next throwback rally.

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